It looks like the only way anyone is going to mount a serious challenge to Google and a combined effort, either through partnership or purchase would see the search experience of Yahoo combined with the technical know-how and product development and of Microsoft. It will be a big challenge to catch Google and it will take number of years to get there but if a deal goes through in Q1 it is set to be an interesting 2009!

NMA news story

In this example which can see the harsh reality of the infamous credit crunch taking hold through the use of Google trends.   Earlier in 2008 term credit crunch as the US sub-prime market fell to pieces and the UK promptly followed suit. The term credit crunch became increasingly popular but now as the affects of it are beginning to really take hold the depressing sight from Google trends shows that searches for redundancy are on the rise in Q4 as businesses feel the pinch.

Don’t be surprised if the next high flying search term in Q1 2009 is recession, a depressing tale told through search volumes!

Mergers and Buyouts

A lot of headlines have been written this year about various potential mergers and buyouts, mostly in the world of the search engines.  Whether it is Microsoft buying Yahoo, Yahoo partnering with Google, or Yahoo merging with AOL barely a month has gone by without a new story about the battle for search engine supremacy.  And where has it got us?  Back where we started with Microsoft and Yahoo still trying to find the best way to dethrone Google.
Away from search (slightly) there was the Google Double Click deal which caused a stir, something which is still yet to show real significance.

Google Pushing Non Search Products

At the Above and Beyond event in September Google discussed everything, apart from web search.  A clear sign of intent that they are looking to diversify in 2009 and place the Google strangle hold on other markets such as mobile marketing and display advertising.  On top of this they launched Google Ad Planner which allows digital marketers to plan digital campaigns outside of search and Google Ad Creator which allows people without flash experience to build display adverts.

Quality Score

Two lots of wholesale changes to quality score in 2008.  The first in September where minimum bids were removed and dynamic quality score was introduced.  On top of this Quality Score began to be displayed on a 1-10 scale and Google began showing the estimated first page bid for all of your keywords.

This was then followed at the end of October when they began normalising click through rate based on an ads position when factoring it into quality score calculations.  Further changes were launched at the same time which affected when and why an ad appeared in the valuable “yellow box” positions at the top of the results.

Google’s Gambling U-turn

One of the biggest stories of the year outside of the merger talk was Google’s U-turn on their policy of not allowing gambling advertisers.  Amazingly, in the face of a difficult Q3, Google’s halo slipped and they decided to begin allowing legitimate gambling advertisers onto the Adwords programme.  Opening up millions of pounds of additional turnover in one swift move.

Google Trademark Bidding

As always, changes on Google, are big changes.  And with the removal of trademark protection they ruffled a few feathers and made themselves a few quid in the process.  Their argument was that quality score and min bid would take care of it, but then they removed min bid and left a lot of trademark owners with a headache and high CPCs on brand terms.  Now Google find themselves with a high profile court case on their hands!

Social Media

Once again on of the hot topics of the year in many different guises.  Whether it was Facebook getting a Facelift, Google launching and subsequently pulling lively.com, or Barack Obama using social media tools to become US President the word social, closely followed by media, network or utility have been uttered many a time in 2008.

Browser Wars 3.0

The launch of Google Chrome announces browser wars 3.0 and looks set to see this space slightly more interesting than usual in 2009.  Although it does have a lot of people questioning what information you would be giving away to Google by browsing using Google Chrome.

Best Practice Funding

As Google’s dominance grows, their charity slows!  Google announces that as of Jan 1st 2009 they will no longer be offering best practice funding to search marketing agencies that resell Google Adwords.  No big deal for direct advertisers but for agencies slow to adapt it could mean a few casualties in 2009 as the more innovative and transparent PPC agencies learn to live without handouts.

There’s my recap of the year, anything I’ve missed?

It’s been another fast paced and exciting year in the digital world we operate in and no doubt 2009 will follow suit and through up surprises and changes which give me something interesting to write about!

Well, apparently, this year will be different.  If the news stories are to be believed millions of people will be logging on to their computers in an attempt to grab a pre-sales bargain ahead of the shop doors opening on December 26th.  Reports on the Sky news website claim 5 million of us will be logging on in between mince pies and spending as much as £100 million.  In the past I can vouch for the fact that Christmas day and Boxing day are notoriously slow days online.  Search volumes and website traffic are down as people spend time with families and sleep off hangovers.  But maybe this year will be different, and December 25th will turn out to be one of the bigger spending days as opposed to the lowest.

I have to say it sounds like wishful thinking on the part of the retailers to me, who have brought forward January sales online to try and cash in before the recession really takes hold.  But maybe I am wrong, and times are changing, Ill certainly be having a look at search and click volumes when I’m back after my Christmas break.  But for now, its back to the sofa and the mince pies!  Merry Christmas!

What I found when I searched for virus protection specialist bullguard were notifications in the natural search listings marking the site which had potentially dangerous downloads and spyware potential.  The site in question was Kazaa which was listed twice in the SEO results, both listed accompanied by the message “Warning: Dangerous Downloads“.  This is the first time I have ever seen this warning before in the search results and I would be interested to find out whether it is a manual label on specific sites or if it is picked up automatically in some way.  Either way it is great for the user to see such warnings and catastrophic for the site as I certainly now I would be steering clear of clicking them.

yahoo show spyware warnings in seo results

In Yahoo’s response via email to it partners they reassured PPC advertisers that, whilst they were disappointed by the announcement, it would not prevent them becoming an “ever-stronger player in online advertising”.  and reaffirm their strength in certain sectors by quoted their positioning across selected news verticals.  A clear attempt to say “don’t give up on us yet!”

In a further twist, Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang has come out and reverted on his original defiance on a sell out to Microsoft by claiming that he was open minded about a potential deal with Microsoft having been bitterly opposed to such a deal when originally proposed.  Its funny how he has changed his mind immediately prior to the Google announcement!

So its back to square one in the search engine battle for supremacy with no deals on the table and everyone working independently.  But for how long?  Yang’s announcement is bound to start the Microsoft-yahoo rumour mill off again and it is probably more likely to go ahead after yesterday but who knows?  I’m sure there will be more twists in the tail before the saga ends.

The figures which have come out of the Microsoft report show a 2x improvement in website visits through a combined approach along with a 54% increase in likelihood of a user conducting a brand search if they had been exposed to a display advert.

You have to take into consideration the producers of these pieces when reviewing the results they show you.  Atlas earn their money based on the amount of activity you are undertaking so have a vested interest in increasing it (plus they earn off both impressions and clicks with display).  Yahoo have seen a downturn in the last quarter in the premium CPM display advertising and so it is in their interest to get you buying more.  And similarly Microsoft need something to prop up their lack of progress in paid search.

So you have to take what they say with a pinch of salt, but that’s not to say there is nothing at all in it.  i do believe an effective online plan involves a balance of all elements.  Search as the flexible, movable return based feast, affiliate marketing as the finite guaranteed return and display advertising to boost the brand and increase awareness.  That said I am an advocate of flexible solutions for display advertising and don’t think that any placement is worth more than £10 CPM, there isn’t enough branding to warrant anymore than this amount.

So whilst I would view the actual stats displayed with an air of scepticism, the general principal is sound in my opinion.  A balanced approach with a blend of channels means you get the best of each without placing all your eggs in one basket.

View Microsofts findings here

Google: Obviously this going to have a slight impact the company which made the change!  This is a massive market for online and is bound to generate a large amount of revenue for Google with some stories quoted figures as high as £300 million.

Gambling Companies: Google has opened up a huge new revenue stream for gambling advertisers which had been frustratingly out of their grasp in the past.  Having to make do with traffic and registrations from Yahoo and MSN had meant that these companies, who were willing to spend large amounts on new sign ups, were unable to reach all the available users.  This has all changed now and gambling companies are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of all the new sign ups they are set to receive from this new channel.

Affiliates: Affiliates willing to push the rules had for a long time been making the most of Google’s ban by employing out of hours bidding and trademark bidding to cash in through the gambling affiliate programmes.  With the new changes, and the requirement of a gambling license, affiliates will find it harder to bypass the system, but will also be priced out by the gambling companies as their returns are lower and so they wont be able to compete on CPCs.

Search Engine Optimisers: I’m not sure how big an impact this will have but I just wondered how the introduction of PPC listings is going to reduce the SEO volume in gambling on Google.  In theory it should remove about 20-30% of the available traffic which could impact the time and money invested in SEO by the big gambling companies.

Agencies: If you have gambling clients, rejoice!  Their value has just increased 10 fold.  So long as you are quick off the mark and get them live you could be looking at a good Q4.

Yahoo and MSN: Gambling has been a large part of Yahoo’s revenues for a while as they have made the most of the Google ban.  Now this is lifted they could see a large dent in their revenues from this channel as gambling marketers allocate more of their spend to Google.  The affect will be two fold, with advertisers looking to free up budget for Googled so reducing overall spend, and a natural reduction of competition on Yahoo and MSN which will  bring the market CPC levels down, so its a double edged sword for them.

The market is yet to settle down, and we wont know the full extent until it does but it is certainly one of the biggest announcements google have made in a while and should help their share price a little!

SEO is an art and one which cant be picked up too easily through reading forums and help guides.  You will always come across conflicting advice and confusing technical recommendations you dont have the expertise to carry out.  In my opinion it is always best to seek out expert advice on such a complex topic and for the agencies that can provide this cost effectively there is a large market out there to go after!  It is also a market which is growing as more and more businesses move online to realise the potential it holds.

The future of not just mobile search but mobile Internet intrigues me, it has been touted as the next big thing for a while now and I have blogged about it in the past (here, here and here) but it still isn’t at a critical mass level or even near for me at the moment.  As the article states, and I have noted in the past, the search terms people are using through their mobile handsets are not for the products and services people search for online.  The Reuters article notes mobile specific search as being the highest volume, typically music tracks or games, where as porn is also a large search term in the mobile world.

My prediction is that mobile search will become a part of the digital mix in the future but not in a way which will see it mirror standard search.  It will require a different model and a different strategy if mobile search is going to become part of a valid digital strategy.